Manmohan Singh, the prime minister of India, is an economist by training. His recent speech to the London School of Economics Asia Forum.
The most important development of the 21st century will be the rise of Asia. China has already trebled its share of world GDP over the past two decades and India has doubled it. Both these giant economies of Asia are bound to regain a considerable part of their share of world GDP that they had lost during the two centuries of European colonialism. While Japan will continue to be at the top in the foreseeable future, the newly industrializing economies of East and South East Asia will also grow, even if not at rates we witnessed in the past two decades.Taken together, the rise of these Asian industrial economies will alter the balance of income distribution at the global level. This need not worry the West, since a dynamic Asia can power global growth and provide new opportunities for growth for Europe and North America.There are questions pertaining to the globalization of lifestyles, and its consequence for consumption, and their impact on the environment. Is growth sustainable if development in the developing world merely mirrors the experience of the developed? It is not just that Third World households may not be able to afford western consumption standards, our planet would not be able to do so.
If every consumer in India and China, totaling up to almost 3 billion, want to live like people in San Francisco, Stockholm or Singapore, can they afford to? Can nature afford it? If not, how do we alter lifestyles and consumption patterns so that growth is sustainable in a more globalized world?
I believe a new generation of economists and social scientists have to once again write and draw on blank slates, like IG’s generation did. There are no textbook solutions. There are no pet answers, no clever models. The rise of Asia, and of the developing world in general, presents us with new challenges – new intellectual challenges, new technological challenges, new organizational and political challenges.