Monthly Archives: October 2008

Khosla’s Black Swans

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Vinod Khosla talks about his investments in alternate energy in terms of Black Swans.

Speaking during the Reuters Global Environment Summit, Khosla said he hunts for “black swans” in alternative energy — revolutionary and unforeseen ideas that change the world as we know it — and are as unexpected as the birds they are named for.

“There is no such thing as great visionaries,” said Khosla, one of Silicon Valley’s best-known venture capitalists. “There’s a huge dose of luck… we just have to take more shots on goal.”

Khosla said Nassim Taleb, a Wall Street trader-turned-author uses the term “black swan” in a recent book to describe the unpredictable and consequential events in business that can be clearly explained once they happen — such as the current financial crisis.

But the world of technology creates opportunities for “good” black swans, added Khosla, who was dressed in his trademark all-black outfit.

Tom Peters recently talked about Black Swans and what to do when a negative one happens.

If you are interested in Khosla, check out these previous posts- Khosla’s Energy Portfolio, Khosla, the Pragmatist, Changing the rules.

TATA’s Nano goes from Bengal to Gujarat

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TOI: From Bengal to Gujarat, it’s the same country and two very different stories. What lessons do you draw as a senior business leader?

Tata: I don’t know how much problem that we faced was really that of the famers. I would just say that political opposition and political aspiration should always be subordinated to the better welfare of the country or the state. I don’t know who would be the losers. You have talked about ourselves being one of the losers in the sense of losses owing to time overruns. But I wonder what we have left behind. I am sure West Bengal can attract other investments and will attract other investments and we will be as supportive as we can in attracting new investments. But what about the people who had aspirations for jobs? The people who have made this issue of land-for-land — will they prosper? Has anything been done to increase their yeilds, their income levels? Many of them are below subsistence levels — they say so themselves. On the one hand, they talk of drinking their money away or not having money, and on the other hand, they talk of having their land back. I mean are we doing anything to improve their lot? These are the questions that come to my mind. So, political opposition should hold the country first and not themselves. That’s all I am saying.

Ratan Tata for me is most respectable businessman in India. Tata’s interview in the Times of India shows the dire political aspirations killing the prospect of development in India.

Now that the world’s cheapest car plant is gone from the state of West Bengal, it will effect its economic prospects for many years to come and the short term losses to all the job aspirations, the increase in land prices around the plant and other external benefits.

India’s renewable energy plans

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“A lot of scope is there in the coming days for renewable energy… According to our information, nearly 200 billion rupees ($4.3 billion) is the investment we are expecting in five to seven years,” he said during Reuters Global Environment Summit.

The investments span solar, hydro, wind and biofuel energy.

India aims to generate 25,000 megawatts of power from renewable energy over the next four years, more than double the current generation level of 12,000 MW.

Only three percent of India’s total power mix is now from renewables, and developing this sector is at the centre of India’s national plan on climate change which does not commit to any emission targets.

India needs to work more towards solar and wind rather than biofuel considering the experience around the world in that.

Source

Clean Energy 2030: Google’s plan to save the planet

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The Google plan is nothing if not ambitious. To begin with, Google proposes a massive push toward energy efficiency, which will reduce electricity demand to 2008 levels (accounting for around 1,000 terawatt hours/year. It also calls for a complete cessation of oil and coal for power generation (currently, coal provides around half of the electricity used in the US). Taking up the slack would be wind, solar, and geothermal power generation.

Wind power would grow from a current 16GW to 350GW, solar from 1GW to 250GW, and geothermal from 2.9GW to 80GW. These would be concentrated in the Great Plains, the southwest, and in offshore wind farms, placing power generation near population centers where energy consumption is highest.

Google continues to amaze me with their focus on green technology and energy. Will this be part of the current Google company structure? How will their shareholders react to this?

Source: Clean Energy 2030: Google’s plan to save the planet

Henry Ford on Business and Life

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DailyLit is an interesting experiement. They send you bit sized chuncks of book everyday by email. I have started reading Henry Ford’s My Life and Work.

Some excerpts from the first installment (1 of 102).

When one speaks of increasing power, machinery, and industry there comes up a picture of a cold, metallic sort of world in which great factories will drive away the trees, the flowers, the birds, and the green fields. And that then we shall have a world composed of metal machines and human machines. With all of that I do not agree. I think that unless we know more about machines and their use, unless we better understand the mechanical portion of life, we cannot have the time to enjoy the trees, and the birds, and the flowers, and the green fields.

[...]
Power and machinery, money and goods, are useful only as they set us free to live. They are but means to an end. For instance, I do not consider the machines which bear my name simply as machines. If that was all there was to it I would do something else. I take them as concrete evidence of the working out of a theory of business, which I hope is something more than a theory of business–a theory that looks toward making this world a better place in which to live…

[...]

The natural thing to do is to work–to recognize that prosperity and happiness can be obtained only through honest effort. Human ills flow largely from attempting to escape from this natural course. I have no suggestion which goes beyond accepting in its fullest this principle of nature. I take it for granted that we must work. All that we have done comes as the result of a certain insistence that since we must work it is better to work intelligently and forehandedly; that the better we do our work the better off we shall be. All of which I conceive to be merely elemental common sense.