Emissions profile for Developed Countries vs Developing Countries – Is it 46/54 or 80/20? The Australian misleads the real numbers

The Australian has a story today about a study with the headline

“Developing nations outstrip rich on greenhouse gases”

When you go into the details the numbers are different.

Developing countries of the world; where 5.7 billion people live emit 54% of the world emissions; and the developed world where 1 billion people live emit about 46% of the world emissions. From 1990, the developing countries have been growing faster than developed countries. This is true for two reasons – one, more population and two, higher economic growth.

The author of the study has this to say too,

  • The study said that the increase in emissions from developing countries was in part due to their manufacture of goods for export to rich countries.
  • Professor Le Quere said that emissions per person remained much higher in rich countries
  • Professor Le Quere said that the study did not take account of historic responsibility for greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. She said that developing countries were responsible for only 20 per cent of cumulative emissions since 1751.
  • “Emissions in rich countries have only stabilised because they have reached a certain stage of development which other countries have yet to attain.”

The last part is the critical. They have stabilised at a very high per capita per person because of a certain stage of development and developing countries with their higher population are responsible for only 20% of the world emissions from 1751.

If carbon emissions need to be cut then the developed nations responsible for 80% of the emissions from 1751 need to do it first. Only if headlines told the real story.

Africa in Infographics

I love infographics. The ability to understand information in a visual form is much higher and the ideas stay with you longer.

Freakonomics suggests this site on Africa which provides some good infographics.

South Korea’s Emissions Target – What does 30% mean?

South Korea has suggested that it will reduce its emissions by 30% by 2020.  Now, what does this mean?30% of what?

The answer is 30% of the expected emissions in 2020 if business as usual. That is quite a different kind of target. The European Union has a target of 20% reduction by 2020 of 1990 levels. Quite different from Korea’s. In fact, the South Korean target equates to 4% reduction from 2005 levels.

I think that this is a more realistic target. I was expecting some solutions on how they would do it but looks like this was not a well thought out target as the government will set up a task force to understand the effect of this. It has committed to funding but that is it.

Some excerpts from various news articles:

  • South Korea will limit the burden on manufacturers and reduce emissions by “non industries” such as transportation and building to keep carbon dioxide output below the level it may rise to by 2020 in the absence of preventive measures.
  • The government will form a task force comprising bureaucrats, industry officials and experts to study possible curbs on industries and households, according to the statement.
  • South Korea’s green investment plans are already among the most ambitious in Asia, with the government saying earlier this year it would pump 107 trillion won ($92.88 billion) into environment-related industries over the next five years.
  • The 30 percent reduction isn’t absolute, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said in a separate statement. Future economic growth and oil prices may change the target, the ministry said, without giving an estimate.
  • President Lee Myung-bak said in the statement that while emissions reduction would present “short-term burdens” it would also bring “broader national gains.”
  • “Through the aggressive greenhouse gas reduction, South Korea will be ready for industrialized countries’ carbon trade tariffs, raise energy security and acquire market share first in rapidly growing green sectors.”